Management of perennial weeds has become increasingly difficult with the reduction of herbicide use. Creeping perennials accumulate reserves in specialized belowground organs from which they regenerate new plants after a disturbance. Through tool selection, tillage operations could be optimized to reduce perennial-weed reserves and limit regeneration. In the present study, the effect of five tools on the fragmentation of the creeping roots of Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop. (Canada thistle), a major perennial weed in arable crops, were analysed. A field trial was set up to measure the lengths of the root fragments left after tillage. Five tools were tested: mouldboard ploughing, rotary harrow, disc harrow, rigid-tine cultivator and goose-foot cultivator. Fragment-length distribution varied according to the tool: rotary harrow left the smallest (3.7 cm on average) and least variable fragment lengths, mouldboard ploughing the longest (12.7 cm) and most variable ones. The other tools produced intermediate-sized fragments (8–10 cm). Based on these results and literature, a model was proposed to predict perennial-weed regeneration probability from storage-organ fragments after one tillage run. The effects of six factors, which were agronomic (tillage tool), environmental (soil conditions and temperature) and biological (storage-organ fragment diameter, maximal belowground-shoot length and pre-tillage storage-organ distribution), were tested through a sensitivity analysis. According to the model, the probability of fragment regeneration success is lower for the rotary harrow than for the mouldboard plough. The most important drivers of fragment regeneration success were the biological traits: fragment diameter and maximal belowground-shoot length per unit fragment biomass. The present model should be complemented to predict the effect of tillage on perennial-weed regrowth and help improving non-chemical weed-management strategies. To achieve this, further research is needed on plant regrowth potential from storage organs and their architecture in the soil.